 |
| It
took to the very last second to determine the winner of the TCU-Baylor
game. TCU kicker Griffin Kell capped a comeback by the Horned Frogs when
he converted a 40-yard field goal as time expired to give TCU a 29-28
victory over the Bears. Kell’s field goal made him
12-of-13 on the season and 41-of-52 in his career. For his game-winning
performance, Kell was named the Big 12’s Special Teams Player of the Week. -- Photo by Tom C. "Midnite" Burke |
#4 TCU 29, Baylor 28
November 19, 2022
McLane Stadium
Baylor University
Waco, Texas
Attendance: 44,393
Final stats: here
Game highlights: here
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes discusses TCU's win: here
TCU quarterback Max Duggan discusses TCU's win: here
TCU kicker Griffin Kell discusses TCU's win: here
TCU safety Bud Clark discusses TCU's win: here
TCU wide receiver Gunnar Henderson discusses TCU's win: here
Baylor head coach Dave Aranda discusses Baylor's loss: here
Miracle on The Brazos Keeps TCU's Dream Season Alive
Yes, Virginia, Miracles on the Brazos really do happen.
And, thankfully, every so often, the Fat Lady has to take a few seconds or so to clear her throat before she starts singing.
With the afternoon stars aligned, and with a Heisman Trophy-candidate quarterback in charge of a group of Horned Frogs who are as confident in winning football games as they are in brushing their teeth, the fourth-ranked TCU football team remained undefeated after an exhilarating 29-28 victory over the Baylor Bears (Midnite had predicted a 38-24 TCU victory) on Saturday, November 19, in Waco, Texas.
As one former TCU head football coach would have said, “Unbeleeeeevable!”
And as another former TCU head football coach would have proclaimed, “Just win by one!”
With the win over Baylor, TCU (11-0, 8-0 Big 12) remained one of four unbeaten FBS teams in the country. The other three are Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan.
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| Tom C. "Midnite" Burke |
TCU's five wins over ranked opponents (Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas) equals the combined total of Georgia (2), Ohio State (2) and Michigan (1).
TCU's five victories over ranked opponents is tied with Tennessee for the most nationally.
The Horned Frogs are just the third team since 1960 (Stanford, 2012; Iowa, 1960) to win four consecutive games over ranked opponents in a calendar month.
TCU's four consecutive games with a win over a ranked opponent is tied for first nationally since 1996.
TCU is first in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, meaning the average top-25 team would have just a four percent chance to achieve the same 11-0 record versus the same schedule.
Victory for the Frogs on Baylor’s “Senior Day,” and for the second time this season as part of FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff show, seemed improbable when with under 10 minutes remaining in the game the Bears took a 28-20 lead on a one-yard touchdown run by Richard Reese.
With that touchdown by Baylor (6-5, 4-4), a state of sullenness overwhelmed the several thousand TCU fans who were among the 44,393 in Baylor’s cold and gloomy McLane Stadium, which is located alongside the Brazos River and Interstate 35 in north Waco.
Frankly, it appeared that TCU’s undefeated season and national championship dreams were about to sink to the bottom of the Brazos.
But there was a glimmer of hope. Nearly 50 years earlier, the first Miracle on the Brazos had taken place in Waco.
For the first time in 18 years, on November 9, 1974, Baylor defeated Texas, 34-24, in the Bears’ old-style Floyd Casey Stadium. Baylor had trailed at halftime, 24-7.
That miracle win over the Longhorns propelled Baylor, which was coached by the legendary Grant Teaff, to its first Southwest Conference Championship in football since 1924.
Would there be another Miracle on the Brazos, in favor of the Horned Frogs?
With 2:07 left in the game against their arch-rivals, the Horned Frogs moved to within two points of the Bears, 28-26, on a three-yard touchdown run by Emari Demercado.
The touchdown capped an 11-play, 90-yard drive that was engineered by TCU quarterback Max Duggan.
The Frogs were forced to try to tie the game through a two-point conversion attempt, because earlier in the game kicker Griffin Kell had missed an extra-point kick.
The two-point conversion failed when Duggan and Demercado failed to connect on a swing pass.
With Baylor’s offense taking possession of the football after the kickoff by the Frogs, several hundred Baylor students and other fans began moving down to the bottom rows of the stadium, ready to rush the field after a victory over the fourth-ranked team in the country.
Chants of “T-C-U sucks” and “Overrated” began to waft through McLane Stadium.
But, notably, the fat lady had not begun to sing.
TCU’s defense, which consistently had been gashed by the Bears, somehow stiffened and forced Baylor’s offense into a three-and-out, with the Frogs burning their three timeouts to preserve time on the game clock.
After a Baylor punt, which took place only seconds after TCU ran a 12th defender off the field to avoid a penalty that would have given Baylor a game-winning first down, the Frogs' offense took the field at the TCU 31-yard line.
1:34 remained in the game.
TCU had no timeouts.
The Frogs needed a miracle.
Duggan delivered, as he has all season.
Over the next 1:19, Duggan methodically drove the Horned Frogs to the Baylor 23-yard line, even though because of injuries receivers Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston and running back Kendre Miller were not part of the supporting cast because of injuries.
Duggan keyed the Heisman-quality drive by accounting for 40 of TCU’s final 46 yards. He had consecutive completions of 19 yards to wide receiver Taye Barber and nine yards to wide receiver Savion Williams, and a 12-yard keeper. Demercado added two three-yard runs.
After Demercado’s second run, to the Baylor 23-yard line, 15 seconds remained in the game, with the clock running
Kell and TCU’s field goal unit rushed onto the field in an orchestrated purple-and-white blur.
A Fox TV announcer described the scene as “Hypnotoad in a hurry.”
For the Horned Frogs, it was “bazooka” time – a fire-drill, last-second field goal attempt that TCU practices every Thursday.
And it was time for the miracle.
With seven seconds remaining, the Frogs were lined up in field goal formation.
Silence, and disbelief, gripped stunned Baylor fans.
Prayers were said by hopeful TCU fans.
With three ticks on the game clock remaining, long-snapper Brent Matiscik perfectly hiked the football to holder Jordy Sandy who perfectly placed the football at the 30-yard line, and Kell perfectly split the uprights on a 40-yard field goal as time expired.
Miracle delivered.
Frogs win, 29-28.
“Since we practice that scenario every Thursday, it was like brushing our teeth,” explained a cool, calm and collected Duggan after the victory.
And with the TCU victory, Baylor was spared from being fined by the Big 12 for rushing the field.
With 118 games played, TCU has faced Baylor more than any other opponent in its history. TCU leads the series 58-53-7.
TCU has won seven of the last eight games against Baylor, including four straight in Waco, with the lone loss in triple overtime in 2019. Since beginning Big 12 play in 2012, the Horned Frogs are 8-3 against the Bears.
This miraculous win may erase from the memory of many Horned Frogs fans TCU’s infamous 61-58 loss to Baylor in 2014, when the Frogs played at McLane Stadium for the first time. That was TCU’s only loss that season, and the Frogs shared the Big 12 title with Baylor. TCU and the Bears were the first two teams left out of the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff.
Bitterness has since lingered.
Perhaps long enough.
Perhaps too long.
The Horned Frogs are 11-0 for the fourth time in their history and first time since 2010, when TCU went 13-0, won the Rose Bowl and finished as the country’s second-ranked team.
TCU is the first Big 12 team to be 11-0 since Texas in 2009.
Sonny Dykes is the first head coach in TCU and Big 12 history to win his first 11 games.
TCU is first team since 1975 to win seven-straight games by 10 points or less.
The Frogs are the first Big 12 team to start 11-0 in the College Football Playoff era. Two other teams began 10-0: Kansas State, in 2012; and Oklahoma State, in 2015. Coincidentally, Baylor ended both of those teams’ winning streaks and perfect seasons.
The win over Baylor was the sixth time in their last seven games that TCU trailed and had to come back to record a victory.
TCU is 21-6 combined versus Texas, Baylor and Texas Tech since 2014.
Kell’s game-winning 40-yard field goal made him 12-of-13 on the season and 41-of-52 in his career, tied for six-most field goals in TCU history.
Kell’s performance in the Baylor game earned him Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors for the second time in his career. He also won the award as a sophomore in 2020, when he kicked four field goals in a win at Texas.
Against Baylor, the Horned Frogs won on a field goal on the final play of regulation for the first time since the 2014 season, when Jaden Oberkrom’s 37-yard kick beat West Virginia 31-30 in Morgantown. Oberkrom coached Griffin Kell, who made the game-winning 40-yard field goal today.
TCU is 2-0 with FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff on site, in addition to being 2-0 when ESPN’s College GameDay has been at its game this season.
Against Baylor, Duggan made his 39th career start. He completed 24-of-35 passes for 327 yards and a touchdown. He led TCU in rushing with 50 yards on eight carries, including a seven-yard touchdown run in the first quarter.
Duggan’s touchdown run was the 24th of his career, giving him sole possession of eighth place on TCU’s career list. He broke a tie with Kenneth Davis (23, 1982-85). Duggan is second all-time among quarterbacks trailing only Trevone Boykin, who is next on the list in seventh with 27 (2012-15).
The 327 passing yards marked Duggan’s fifth game this season with at least 300 yards passing. He has thrown for 2,858 yards and 26 touchdowns. He’s added another 291 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns. He has accomplished these feats in basically 10 games. He did not start the season-opener at Colorado. He entered that game midway through the second half, when starting quarterback Chandler Morris was injured.
Duggan's performance against the Bears kept him in the conversation for the 2022 Heisman Trophy and earned him the Manning Award Star of the Week honor.
Duggan has been named a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award, a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Football Foundation's Player of the Year award, and a semifinalist for the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award.
The Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award annually recognizes the top senior or upperclassman quarterback based on performance on and off the field.
The Davey O’Brien Award is named after TCU’s 1938 Heisman Trophy winner who guided the Horned Frogs to the national championship that season.
The Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award is presented to a player who was either born in Texas, graduated from a state high school or plays at a Texas-based University.
TCU running back Kendre Miller, wide receiver Quentin Johnston and offensive lineman Steve Avila also have been named semifinalists for the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award.
Against Baylor, Miller was held to 41 rushing yards on 10 carries. He had a two-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter that tied the game, 14-14.
Miller’s touchdown run gave him a rushing score in all 11 games this year, the second-longest streak to begin a season in TCU history. TCU Board of Trustees member LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a touchdown in all 12 games in 2000.
Miller's 12 consecutive games with a rushing touchdown is the longest active streak in the nation and ranks second all-time at TCU, behind only Tomlinson (15, 1999-00).
Miller, who had to leave the Baylor game in the second half
because of injury, has a team-best 14 touchdowns on the season, which is tied
for seventh nationally.
Miller has rushed for a team-best 1,188 yards, making him TCU’s first
1,000-yard rusher since Kyle Hicks had 1,042 in 2016. The 1,188 yards are the
most by a Horned Frog since Aaron Green had 1,272 in 2015. Miller's five
straight 100-yard games was the longest streak by a Horned Frog since Lonta Hobbs
with five in 2002. Miller has topped 100 yards in seven of his last nine games.
Miller has been named as a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award, presented to the nation's top running back. Tomlinson won the 2000 Doak Walker Award.
TCU wide receiver Gunnar Henderson tied a season-high with three receptions for 52 yards against Baylor. He also had a 26-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter that gave TCU a 20-14 lead. The touchdown catch was his second scoring grab of the season and came one play after a 20-yard reception.
Wide receiver Taye Barber had a team-best five receptions for 108 yards against the Bears. It was Barber’s second 100-yard game of the season and fourth of his career.
Barber had a 77-yard reception, his third catch this season of at least 70 yards. Barber has 153 receptions in his career, the most by a current Horned Frog.
Wide receiver Savion Williams had a career-high four receptions for 54 yards.
Johnston, who had to leave the game in the second half because he aggravated a high ankle sprain, caught four passes for 48 yards against Baylor.
Johnston has been named a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award, presented to college football's outstanding receiver. Johnston tops TCU with 49 receptions and 764 receiving yards. His five touchdown catches tie Derius Davis for the team lead.
TCU’s defense struggled against Baylor’s quick, talented and creative offense. The Bears totaled 501 yards of offense; 269 passing yards and 232 rushing yards.
Baylor sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen completed 21-of-30 passes. He threw one touchdown pass and one interception. The Frogs sacked him once.
The Bears’ Monaray Baldwin, a sophomore wide receiver, terrorized the Frogs by catching six passes for 123 yards.
On the ground, Baylor junior running back Craig Williams carried the football 19 times for 112 yards.
Defensively against Baylor, safeties Millard Bradford and Mark Perry and linebacker Johnny Hodges tied for team-high honors with seven tackles each. Hodges and defensive lineman Dylan Horon had 1 1/2 tackles for loss and combined on a sack.
TCU safety Bud Clark had his team-best fourth interception, along with five tackles. Clark’s interception came in the TCU end zone to end a Baylor scoring threat at the close of the first half.
The Horned Frogs are two wins away from being one of the four teams in this season’s College Football Playoff National Championship. No Big 12 team other than Oklahoma has been included in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
In its final regular-season game, TCU (11-0, 8-0 Big 12) plays Iowa State (4-7, 1-7 Big 12) this Saturday, November 26, in Amon G. Carter Stadium, in Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 3 pm (Central). Fox will televise the game.
On Saturday, December 3, TCU will play either Kansas State (8-3, 6-2 Big 12) or Texas (7-4, 5-3 Big 12) in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 11 am (Central). ABC will televise the game.
If K-State beats Kansas on Saturday, November 26, the Wildcats will play the Horned Frogs in the conference championship game.
If K-State loses to Kansas, and Texas beats Baylor on Friday, November 25, the Longhorns will play TCU in the conference championship game.
If the Wildcats and ‘Horns both lose their final regular-season games, Kansas State will play TCU in the conference championship game.
In addition to TCU, Kansas State and Texas, Big 12 teams Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas have qualified for bowl games. Only West Virginia (4-7, 2-6 Big 12) and Iowa State from the Big 12 will not be bowling.
The TCU-Iowa State series doesn't extend much beyond TCU's days in the Big 12 Conference. The two teams squared off in a home-and-home series in 1995 and 1998. TCU won both of the games.
Between 1998 and TCU joining the Big 12 in 2012, the two teams played once, in the 2005 Houston Bowl. TCU beat Iowa State 27-24.
The Horned Frogs were 8-2 all-time in the series between the two teams before the Cyclones won the last three games.
Last season, Iowa State kept the Frogs from bowling by pounding them 48-14 in Ames. The Cyclones piled up almost 550 yards of total offense. Duggan was sacked five times and intercepted once by a swarming Iowa State defense.
In 2020, in Fort Worth, Iowa State squeaked out a 37-34 win over TCU.
In 2019, Iowa State smashed the Frogs 49-24, in Ames.
TCU leads the series with the Cyclones, 8-5. The teams are 5-5 against each other since TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012.
Duggan, a senior who is from Council Bluffs, Iowa, and a graduate of Lewis Central High School, is 0-3 in his career against the Cyclones. Iowa State is the only Big 12 team that Duggan, who was the 2018 Iowa Gatorade Player of the Year, hasn’t beaten.
Iowa State has had a disappointing season. Six of the Cyclones’ seven losses have been by a touchdown or less.
This season, Iowa State has beaten: Southeast Missouri, 42-10, in Ames; Iowa, 10-7, in Iowa City; Ohio, 43-10, in Ames; and West Virginia, 31-14, in Ames.
Iowa State has lost to: Baylor, 31-24, in Ames; Kansas, 14-11, in Lawrence; Kansas State, 10-9, in Ames; Texas, 24-21, in Austin; Oklahoma, 27-13, in Ames; Oklahoma State, 20-14, in Stillwater; and Texas Tech, 14-10, in Ames.
Overall, Iowa State’s offense is averaging 20.73 points and 373.4 total yards per game. The Cyclones are averaging 103.4 rushing yards and 270 passing yards per game.
In Big 12 play, Iowa State’s offense is averaging 16.6 points per game and 357.8 total yards per game; 274.1 passing yards (first) and 83.6 rushing yards (10th).
Overall, the Cyclones’ defense is allowing 16.45 points per game and 277.3 total yards per game; 172.09 passing yards and 105.2 rushing yards.
In Big 12 play, the Cyclones are allowing 19.3 points per game (first) and 293.4 total yards per game (first); 171.3 passing yards per game (first) and 122.1 rushing yards per game (first).
Only Baylor has surpassed scoring 30 points against Iowa State. The Bears scored 31 against the Cyclones.
TCU leads the Big 12 in scoring, averaging 36.9 points per conference game. The Frogs are allowing 27 points per conference game (fourth).
The Horned Frogs also lead the Big 12 in total yards in conference games, averaging 471.6 total yards. The Frogs are allowing 394.1 total yards per conference game (fourth).
TCU’s passing offense ranks third in Big 12 games, averaging 271 yards per game. The Frogs are second in passing defense, allowing 234.5 passing yards per conference game.
The Horned Frogs’ rushing offense ranks third in Big 12 games, averaging 200.6 yards per game. TCU is fifth in rushing defense, allowing 159.6 rushing yards per conference game.
Iowa State is led on offense by redshirt sophomore quarterback Hunter Dekkers (#12), a left-hander who leads the Big 12 in passing yards. He has completed 290-of-433 passes for 2,938 yards. He has thrown 18 touchdown passes and a conference-high 13 interceptions.
The Cyclones’ top receiver is Xavier Hutchinson (#8). The 6’3” senior has 105 receptions for 1,160 yards. He leads the country in receptions by 14 and is fifth in receiving yardage. He has caught six touchdown passes.
Hutchinson has had at least 100 yards in six of the last seven games and had 10 catches in four straight games. His lowest receiving yards total of the season was 72 yards against Oklahoma.
TCU cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson probably will be matched up with Hutchinson. At 5’9”, Tomlinson will be facing a height disadvantage of at least six inches.
In Iowa State’s rout of TCU last year, Hutchinson caught seven passes for 107 yards.
Sophomore wide receiver Jaylin Noel (#13) has caught 53 passes for 532 yards. He has three touchdown receptions.
Redshirt junior running back Jirehl Brock (21) is Iowa State’s leading rusher, with only 460 yards on 99 carries. He has three rushing touchdowns.
Iowa State’s offense has given up 25 sacks.
Defensively, the Cyclones run a similar 3-3-5 defense to TCU.
Iowa State junior defensive back T.J Tampa (#2) is one of the highest-graded cornerbacks in the Big 12. He has 38 tackles, five tackles for loss and one interception.
Redshirt senior linebacker Gerry Vaughn (#32) is the Cyclones’ leading tackler with 64 tackles. He has four tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
Redshirt senior defensive end Will McDonald IV, who earned All American honors last season and was a consensus All-Big 12 pick this preseason, is the team’s leading pass rusher with five sacks. He also has 6.5 tackles for loss and three pass deflections.
Iowa State’s field goal kicker is freshman Jace Gilbert (#20), who is 12-of-18. He has a long field goal of 44 yards. He has not had a kick blocked.
Freshman Tyler Perkins (#80) is the Cyclones’ punter. He is averaging nearly 43 yards per punt. He has a long punt of 61 yards. He has had one punt blocked.
The TCU-Iowa State betting line: TCU is a 10.5-point favorite. The over/under is 47.5 points.
Midnite’s TCU-Iowa State Prediction: TCU wins, 34-17.
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